They have already been born
The most predictable number in UK business planning is how many very old people there will be. Because they have already been born.
Every figure is cited on screen. Company examples are fictional specimens.
Music: Inspired by Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com), licensed under CC BY 4.0
Transcript
- 0:00
The most predictable number in UK business planning is how many very old people there will be. Because they have already been born.
- 0:12
There were about 1.7 million people aged 85 and over in 2020. By the mid 2040s that is projected to reach about 3.1 million. Nearly double, inside twenty five years.
- 0:29
Everyone who will be 85 then is alive today, and is 65 now. Compared with forecasting interest rates, that is about as solid as planning data gets.
- 0:42
Far more businesses sit downstream of this than care homes. Equipment. Building work. Catering, laundry, cleaning and staffing. Accountants and insurers. Funeral services.
- 1:01
One honest caveat. Rising demand does not mean easy money. Care is shaped by public funding and by staffing, and plenty of care businesses still close.
- 1:18
A projection tells you the market is growing. It does not tell you who to call.
About this film
They have already been born runs 1:26, read by Imogen and appears on Leadistry's Blog page. The full narration is above in 6 sections, so you can read it instead of watching if that is quicker. Every figure shown on screen comes from the Companies House public record or a named published source, and the companies used as examples are fictional specimens rather than real customers.